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Chicago, Illinois
For those that do not know, there are a large number of hospitals in very close proximity to each other, and lets not forget the mass transit lines that run between them, as well as the two airports.
A lone zombie wanders into a hospital, decides it is snack time, all those helpless patients, ripe for the picking....
That same zombie then heads across the street to another hospital for dessert, before heading out to the streets to walk the city almost undetected thanks to all the semi-crippled homeless, they seem to blend right in. Time rolls by, and those that have been infected in the hospital start to turn, and spread like wildfire through the halls of the hospitals and infect even more victims, also finding exits they make their way haphazardly through the city, where they spill into the subway lines, biting the commuters, which, could be heading to O'Hare airport. Those bitten and on the way to the airport, are not thinking about a zombie virus much less than I was just a victim of a random act of violence, now they are headed to their home town either here or abroad, spreading the now small outbreak making it a true epidemic. In a matter of seventy-two hours, what was once an isolated incident has gone worldwide. It would be my educated guess that in a matter of a couple weeks, we would definitely be a world overrun by the dead. There would be mass hysteria, since I know that nobody but those of us have even thought of preparing for such an outbreak, I too know that no government has even put thought in defending its nation from its fallen citizens, and would be quick to fail in defense, because though their bullets cut through the zeds like a hot knife through butter, they still keep coming, never to fall until a head shot is scored. By the time the military is involved, it would be too late, and they too would fail, since they will be so limited in their options, since using anything other than a rifle, or a pistol would not be an option since they are not trying to destroy civilian homes just to break up a "riot." That said, it is up to us to keep a sharp eye and make sure that this never does happen.
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Wow. You must have put a lot of thought into this.
That would SUCK.
"Annihilation Will Be Unavoidable"
~Disturbed
"Only The Dead Have Seen The End Of War."
~Plato
Me thinks it would be an over night type of deal... Yeah we'd be screwed unless our government actually had a plan XD Makes me wonder though... If there is an us is there a them in there somewhere making things for this...? XD Still though man... If you see one kill it and get out... I wouldn't stay for a second man there are too many possabilities and to many people I consider under my protection...
P.S. I totally agree with your post man... I think it'll happen like that too... (Unless the citizens figure out how to be smart...)
My score is 3776, what's yous? http://ww2.zombieinitiative.org/node/2515
That's exactly what I think, in a matter of twenty four hours, one Zombie could produce 3 or more victims, and those victims could produce the same or more in the second twenty four hours. It is nothing more than a pyramid scheme on a grand scale, but without scamming money.
1-2 1 bites 2 which makes 3
3-2 3 bites 2 making 9 (take the first 3 and add 6 for the new victims)
9-2 9 bites 2 making 27 (again multiply first number by 2 then add the original number)
27-2 27 bites 2 (plus the first 27) makes 81
81 Zombies in less than a week, all stemming back from 1 Zombie (provided that the turn around time is 24 hours since infection)
In 7 days, at this rate, there would be 2187 Zombies walking the earth (if my math is correct)
The numbers are not set in stone though, but as you see in the above example, how fast the zombie population can grow if left unchecked.
* Based on a two person a day diet, results may vary from Zombie to Zombie.
(Please if anyone out there is good with graphs and or just good old math, let me know what you find for a year)
Lets not forget that if that does happen at the hospital right next to the University of Chicago, that all the students in the college are potential Z food, as well as those who live on campus. So the infection would spread a little more like wildfire on steriods. but you of all people know what I think of the situation. I'll dance the day it does happen.
I haven't ruled that out as a possibility, I was mainly looking at it as how rapidly an outbreak could spread. But thanks again for bringing that issue to light.
Had a zed made it onto the campus, he/she would start mauling students which will spread within days to take the complete campus. Though the students are staying in Chicago, they too would be carrying the virus with them wherever they go until they ultimately meet their demise to the bite, and then continue the spread at their places of work, and or study. And since some of these students live off campus and commute via train to the suburbs, the northern third of Illinois, southern Wisconsin, and Northwest Indiana, are all at a heightened risk. God willing they do not hop onto an Amtrak to go to their homes on a leave from school.
No matter how you slice it, if an outbreak were to start here, the results would be catastrophic.
Any major city is a powderkeg waiting to blow. A single zed manages to make its way into one it will be game over.
Personally i think your estimates are on the rather conserative side. a hungry zed has the potential to infect dozens of humans a day if not taken out. A average persons first instinct when attacked is you escape to safety. Leaving the zed "alive" and able to bite again, shambling onwards looking for more food. Infecting maybe a dozen the first day, they turn. Hundreds the next day. Thousands the day after. It crops up in other cities. a matter of weeks its everywhere, the small towns getting hit last as survivors try to escape to a safety that isn't there.
Winning isn't a reason to get a reward but one less poke in the eye, while losing gets you two.
I still think the rate of spread depends on the incubation period.
If the bite takes a week to turn a victim then that one Zed on his diet of two a day =P would have bitten 14 in one week.
then on day 8 there would be 4 bitten day
9:6
10:8
11:10
12:12
13:14
14:18
15:22
16:28
17:32
18:36
19:40
20:44
21:50
22:56
Now making the presumption this starts in a city like New York it has a population in the millions and the officials would not really take notice till about 2% would be showing zombification.
going by the diet of two per day and a seven day incubation period by day 70 we would be looking at about 1000 people showing zombification BUT there would be 2500 already infected so in another week it would be 3500 showing with 7000 infected.
now this rate would be MUCH higher as a Zed would probably not stay with two a day but more like 12 or so.
Hence after the 70 days we would be looking at ~1,000,000 showing and 2,500,000 infected. now with an incubation period of 7 days that would give time for a person to travel to the other side of the world, so if the first person turned Zed in an international airport after 70 days there would be 1 million Zeds BUT they would be all around the world hence the detection time would be so much greater.
HASTA LA VICTORIA SIEMPRE
So you are giving incubation a week, I was giving 24 hours, either way, the world is screwed if a city is hit.
This is a great start to a spread theory. I've gamed this out in my head, too, for my area. I'm about two miles away from two major freeways and a hospital.
Following a "dawn of the dead" concept: 0600 the dead walk. By 1000, I estimated that I'd be seeing at least a couple of zombies shambling through my neighborhood.
Here's why. Incubation rates can be highly variable: If the initial zombie kills some of its victims, then you have a near-instantaneous re-animation. Conversely, if you only get bitten on the arm, it appears you can survive for days.
There are other variables to consider, too. Hospitals will by their very nature, be outbreak ground zeros.
a. People die at hospitals.
b. Doctors stay in close contact with "ill" patients to the very end.
c. Families also go to great efforts to see and be close to their "ill" relative.
With this initial counter-intuitive "victim going Towards the predator" scenario... one can quickly get a zombie count of 50 or more within an hour.
For example: Let Z= zombie Let W= wounded
0600: Z=1
Z lies in the emergency room. Doctor is performing CPR. Z rips out doctor's throat, bites two paramedics who attempt to restrain. The doctor dies... and re-animates.
0602: Z = 2 W = 2
Both Zs are now wreaking havoc in the emergency ward. Security has arrived, but not after Zs have killed 3 more and bitten 9 others.
0605: Z = 5 W = 11
Shots are being fired. One Z takes it to the head. Patients are frantically calling their relatives to come to the hospital. The zombies have now moved out of the emergency ward. Nurses and doctors are still rushing toward Zs, assuming they are wounded patients, and get bitten or killed for their efforts. Some of the earlier wounded succumb to injuries and re-animate.
0615: Z = 13 W = 40
The outbreak is now on several floors and areas of the hospital (the wounded were transported from the emergency room, die, and start biting). Shots are being fired, but nobody is certain how to stop the zombies.
Outside of the hospital, traffic is snarling up on city streets. One family van runs a red light, trying to get to the hospital, and gets T-boned in the intersection by a pickup truck. Two fatalities, four injured (and trapped).
Ground Zero/2 begins with Z =2 and W = 4. Nobody in the intersection knows that zombie-ism is spreading. Civilians and EMTs try to extract the dead and wounded from the wreckage. This gets ugly fast.
... HOWEVER,
The scenario could be completely different. Before Z1 can re-animate, he or she is put in the hospital morgue. Trapped in its steel can, the alpha zombie can do no harm. The disease onset is delayed by hours, if not days. I could spend the whole day at my house and not see a zombie.
I messed with Texas.
Similiar would be gov response time.
what you guys think?
I say in a 'democracy' a week min
Autocracy is say a few days
HASTA LA VICTORIA SIEMPRE